It’s been quite some time since behavioural
science and its applications have reached mainstream media or at least have
left the academic environment. There are books, NGOs, governmental
organizations and private companies who apply the insights of behavioural
science (or at least claim to do so).
Naturally there is a question on the future of
applied behavioural science and I dare make a prediction (which I usually
restrain myself).
My prediction is that
The
future of Applied Behavioural Science will not be about Behavioural Science.
Now, don’t jump off your seat and don’t close
this page. It will make sense very soon!
In order to get a very good understanding of
this (possible and very probable) future we need to take a look to the past; not
that of behavioural science, but of construction – the act of building.
One thousand years ago people were building
houses, castles, monuments, cathedrals etc. We assume (wrongly) that those edifices
were built using the same principles as the ones used today: designing,
sketching, computing dimensions and using information on the resistance of
various materials etc. In a nutshell these could be summarized in what we know
today as (Newtonian) Physics and (Euclidian) Geometry.
The reality is, however, a bit different. One
thousand years ago, there were very few people who had formal knowledge of
Euclidian geometry and Newtonian physics simply didn’t exist. Most of the
building done at the time was based on knowledge acquired through vicarious
learning (stumbling upon something that works) and through trial and error.
Coming back to applied behavioural science, the
situation is quite similar. Formal knowledge in the field is relatively new in historical
terms (approx. 50 years), but what can be seen as applications of behavioural
science date long before the formal knowledge existed. Advertisers, sales
people and others stumbled upon things that work (such as social proof,
anchoring etc.) and used them in practice long before researchers studied these
phenomena.
At one point in history, builders got acquainted
with formal knowledge of Euclidian geometry and Newtonian Physics and found
these insights extremely useful for their work – building. Many of the builders
incorporated this knowledge from geometry and physics into their work and, I
guess, some of them communicated things like:
Hey! I’m a special builder because I use
Euclidian Geometry and Newtonian Physics in my work!
Now (in 2014) we are in a similar stage with
applied behavioural science. Various companies, organizations, individuals (including
myself) etc. say that they are special because they use behavioural science.
But, in a few (my guess 5) years the novelty
and wow-factor of (applied) behavioural science will fade away. Exactly as the
novelty and wow-factor of using geometry and physics in building vanished
centuries ago.
The future will bring behavioural science into
the “implied” area of various activities. I guess nowadays you expect the
builder of your house to know geometry and (basic) physics and would not
contract someone who doesn’t.
The future of applied behavioural science will
be about doing things much better and not about applying scientific knowledge.
Applying the insights of behavioural science will be implied.
The key issue is to identify the areas where behavioural
science can really make a difference and get a head-start. We already know that
it can be used in public policy (design) – see the Behavioural Insights Team,
in public space design – see the activity of the Danish Nudging Network, in
market research – see BrainJuicer and Invivo-BVA, marketing communication – See
Ogilvy and overall service design (yes, me).
The value of the applications of behavioural
science resides in the increased efficiency and effectiveness it brings to
already existing activities. For example, public policy existed long before the
BIT existed, while market research was a mature field when BrainJuicer entered
the market.
The value of behavioural science applied in the
above mentioned fields resides in higher effectiveness of the money spent from
the public budget and, respectively, in better predictive value of market
research endeavours.
If we (behavioural science enthusiasts) are to
survive the future, we need to pick out a field where the application of behavioural
science will lead to an increase of efficiency, effectiveness and quality.
I go for (Behavioural) Service Design. Where do
you go?
If you want to stay posted with what I'm writing, please
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